Technology Empowering U.S. Diplomacy and Development

Prediction Markets - Panelist Bios

Many large corporations such as Proctor & Gamble, Lockheed Martin, Best Buy, AstraZenca, Ford and Chevron are successfully tapping into the wisdom of the aggregate crowd within their organizations by sponsoring prediction markets. But, much of the potential of prediction markets remains unused. The federal government’s first well-known attempt in 2003, DARPAs FutureMAP project, was quickly shut down after being harshly criticized. Since then other agencies, including IARPA, NSF, CDC, the Department of Energy and the USAF have used prediction markets.This panel will focus on prediction markets' potential, how they can be used in government and what obstacles might prevent them from being fully utilized.

Jay Ulfelder (Moderator) (@jay_ulfelder) - Dart-Throwing Chimp

Jay Ulfelder is an American political scientist who studies various forms of political stability and change, including authoritarian rule, social mobilization, democratization, and civil violence. He received his Ph.D. from Stanford University in 1997 and served for 10 years as the research director to the Political Instability Task Force, a U.S. government-funded program that uses statistical models to help forecast rare political events in countries worldwide. Since 2011, Ulfelder has worked as an independent researcher for hire. He is currently serving as a consultant to the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum, conducting a six-month study on the feasibility of establishing a public early-warning system for genocide and mass atrocities.

Michael Abramowicz - George Washington University Law School 

Professor Abramowicz is a Professor of Law at George Washington University. He specializes in law and economics, spanning areas including intellectual property, civil procedure, corporate law, and administrative law, and insurance law. His research has been published in the California Law Review, Columbia Law Review, Cornell Law Review, Harvard Law Review, Michigan Law Review, New York University Law Review, Stanford Law Review, University of Chicago Law Review, Virginia Law Review, Yale Law Journal, and many others. He has also published a book, Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making, with the Yale University Press.  Before coming to GW, Professor Abramowicz served as an Assistant and then Associate Professor at George Mason University School of Law. Professor Abramowicz has also served as a Visiting Assistant Professor at Northwestern University School of Law and as a Visiting Associate Professor at the University of Chicago Law School. 

Jason Matheny (@IARPAnews) - IARPA

Jason Matheny is a Program Manager at IARPA. He manages the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program, which aims to improve intelligence analysis through methods that elicit, weight, and combine the judgments of many experts; and the Open Source Indicators (OSI) Program, which aims to develop methods for continuous, automated analysis of publicly available data in order to anticipate and/or detect significant societal events. Previously, Jason worked for Oxford University, the Center for Biosecurity, the Applied Physics Laboratory, and the World Bank. His work was called one of the "ideas of the year" by the New York Times, and one of the "top science stories of the year" by Discover Magazine, and has been featured in Nature, NOVA, Scientific American, and The Economist, among others.

David Rothschild (@DavMicRot) - Microsoft Research - NYC

David Rothschild is an economist at MSR-NYC. He has a Ph.D. in applied economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. His primary body of work is on forecasting, and understanding public interest and sentiment. Related work examines how the public absorbs information. He has written extensively, in both the academic and popular press, on polling, prediction markets, and predictions of upcoming events; most of his popular work has focused on predicting elections and an economist take on public policy. After joining Microsoft in 2012 he has been building prediction and sentiment models, and organizing novel/experimental polling and prediction games; this work has appeared on both Bing and Xbox. And, he correctly predicted 50 of 51 Electoral College outcomes in February of 2012.

Adam Siegel (@inklinghq) - Inkling Markets

Adam Siegel is a co-founder and the CEO of Inkling Markets, a Chicago-based prediction market company that helps organizations and individuals tap into the collective wisdom of their employees, peers, and customers to improve forecasting processes, predict key corporate metrics, identify promising future innovations, and forge new communication and collaboration channels. Previously, Adam worked at Accenture, a global consulting firm where he served over a dozen clients across multiple industries. Adam holds a Bachelor’s Degree in Political Science from Indiana University.

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